Political earthquakes
could be in store for Europe in 2015, according to research by the Economist Intelligence
Unit for the BBC's Democracy Day.
It says the rising
appeal of populist parties could see some winning elections and mainstream
parties forced into previously unthinkable alliances. Continue..
Europe's "crisis
of democracy" is a gap between elites and voters, EIU says.
There is "a
gaping hole at the heart of European politics where big ideas should be",
it adds.
Low turnouts at the
polls and sharp falls in the membership of traditional parties are key factors
in the phenomenon.
'Highly
destabilising'
The United Kingdom
- going to the polls in May - is "on the cusp of a potentially prolonged
period of political instability", according to the Economist researchers.
They say there is a
much higher than usual chance that the election will produce an unstable
government - predicting that the populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) will
take votes from both the Conservatives and Labour.
The fragmentation of
voters' preferences combined with Britain's first-past-the-post electoral
system will, the EIU says, make it increasingly difficult to form the kind of single-party
governments with a parliamentary majority that have been the norm.
But the most immediate
political challenge - and test of how far the growing populism translates into
success at the polls - is in Greece. A snap general election takes place there
on 25 January, triggered by parliament's failure to choose a new president in
December.
Opinion polls suggest
that the far left, populist Syriza could emerge as the strongest party. If it
did and was able to form a government, the EIU says this would send shock waves
through the European Union and act as a catalyst for political upheaval
elsewhere.
"The election of
a Syriza government would be highly destabilising, both domestically and
regionally. It would almost certainly trigger a crisis in the relationship
between Greece and its international creditors, as debt write-offs
form one of the core planks of its policy platform," the EIU says.
"With similar
anti-establishment parties gaining ground rapidly in a number of other
countries scheduled to hold elections in 2015, the spill-over effects from a
further period of Greek turmoil could be significant."
'Immigration
and austerity'
Other examples of
European elections with potential for unpredictable results cited by EIU
include polls in Denmark, Finland, Spain, France, Sweden, Germany and Ireland.
"There is a
common denominator in these countries: the rise of populist parties," the
EIU says,
Anti-establishment
sentiment has surged across the eurozone (and the larger EU) and the risk of
political disruption and potential crises is high."
Its analysis is that
populist parties and movements - of the left, the right and the indeterminate -
are moving into the space that has opened up between the old political parties
and their traditional social base.
Opposition to
governance from Brussels, immigration and austerity are key themes and rallying
cries for many of these parties.
'Upsurge
of protests'
Meanwhile, alongside
the rise to prominence of populist movements, there has been an upsurge of
popular protest in many parts of the world in recent years.
The EIU estimates that
significant protest movements surfaced in morethan
90 countries during the past five years - in the main, it says, led by young,
educated, middle class individuals who resent their political leaders and who
prefer Twitter and other social networks to the traditional political soap box.
"An
upsurge of popular protest has swept through Europe, the Middle East, North
Africa and Latin America in recent years. Other regions such as Asia and North
America have been less susceptible, although have not escaped entirely,"
the EIU says.
"The
mainsprings of the protests have been different - some have been responses to
economic distress, others are revolts against dictatorship; some are
expressions of a popular desire to have their voices heard by political elites,
others express the aspirations of new middle classes in fast-growing emerging markets."
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